April 16, 2021

Lost in translation

According to a recent Google-translated Korean article about the planned fab, or factory, Nanox plans to make only 2,000 x-ray tubes a month.  

The investment is about 40 million dollars... Nanox plans to produce about 2,000 semiconductor chips and tubes per month for digital X-rays at [the planned Korean] factory. (google translated)

Something must be wrong with the translation by Google.  Making only 2,000 tubes a month means that the cost can never get to $100 a piece, a cost that would be competitive with regular Chinese tubes of equivalent power/performance.

from Slide 15, January 2020 investor presentation  

Here is the simple math:  Recouping just the capital investment at a $100 cost would require making 400,000 non-defective tubes, which would take over 16 years (given the supposed plan for 24,000 tubes a year ).  So, a $100 Nanox tube would not be possible with this fab, if the translated article is correct.

In an interview in September 2020, the CEO told a different story about that same planned fab:

We are shooting for quite a large capacity because we think that Nanox eventually will be in many, many devices, so we are planning for about 1,000 wafers per month (about 5:30 into the video).



Depending on the wafer size and layout, a real company making real MEMS chips of similar size, should get from less than 100 to nearly 200 chips per wafer, or about 40-100 non-defective chips per wafer (assuming yield of 40% and over).

Nanox wafers, annual report, page 66 

But what is Nanox going to do with over one million non-defective chips a year (or over three million by end of 2024)?  All the planned 15,000 Nanox.Arc devices by end of 2024 need only 75,000 to 165,000 tubes in total (depending on whether 5 or 11 tubes per proposed device).  There are only about "500,000 plus" x-ray imaging systems in the world (page 11, Varex filing)

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